In the last decades since the dramatic increase in flood frequency and magnitude, floods have become a crucial problem inWest Africa. National and international authorities concentrate efforts on developing early warning systems (EWS) to deliver flood alerts and prevent loss of lives and damages. Usually, regional EWS are based on hydrological modeling, while local EWS adopt field observations. This study aims to integrate outputs from two regional hydrological models—Niger HYPE (NH) and World-Wide HYPE (WWH)—in a local EWS developed for the Sirba River. Sirba is the major tributary of Middle Niger River Basin and is supported by a local EWS since June 2019. Model evaluation indices were computed with 5-day forecasts demonstrating a better performance of NH (Nash–Sutcliffe effciency NSE = 0.58) thanWWH(NSE = 0.10) and the need of output optimization. The optimization conducted with a linear regression post-processing technique improves performance significantly to “very good” forNH(Heidke skill score HSS = 0.53) and “good” forWWH(HSS = 0.28). HYPE outputs allow to extend local EWS warning lead-time up to 10 days. Since the transfer informatic environment is not yet a mature operational system 10–20% of forecasts were unfortunately not produced in 2019, impacting operational availability.

Downscaling Regional Hydrological Forecast for Operational Use in Local Early Warning: HYPE Models in the Sirba River / Massazza, Giovanni; Tarchiani, Vieri; Andersson, Jafet C. M.; Ali, Abdou; Housseini Ibrahim, Mohamed; Pezzoli, Alessandro; De Filippis, Tiziana; Rocchi, Leandro; Minoungou, Bernard; Gustafsson, David; Rosso, Maurizio. - In: WATER. - ISSN 2073-4441. - 12:12(2020), p. 3504. [10.3390/w12123504]

Downscaling Regional Hydrological Forecast for Operational Use in Local Early Warning: HYPE Models in the Sirba River

Giovanni Massazza;Alessandro Pezzoli;Maurizio Rosso
2020

Abstract

In the last decades since the dramatic increase in flood frequency and magnitude, floods have become a crucial problem inWest Africa. National and international authorities concentrate efforts on developing early warning systems (EWS) to deliver flood alerts and prevent loss of lives and damages. Usually, regional EWS are based on hydrological modeling, while local EWS adopt field observations. This study aims to integrate outputs from two regional hydrological models—Niger HYPE (NH) and World-Wide HYPE (WWH)—in a local EWS developed for the Sirba River. Sirba is the major tributary of Middle Niger River Basin and is supported by a local EWS since June 2019. Model evaluation indices were computed with 5-day forecasts demonstrating a better performance of NH (Nash–Sutcliffe effciency NSE = 0.58) thanWWH(NSE = 0.10) and the need of output optimization. The optimization conducted with a linear regression post-processing technique improves performance significantly to “very good” forNH(Heidke skill score HSS = 0.53) and “good” forWWH(HSS = 0.28). HYPE outputs allow to extend local EWS warning lead-time up to 10 days. Since the transfer informatic environment is not yet a mature operational system 10–20% of forecasts were unfortunately not produced in 2019, impacting operational availability.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2857614