Past and future hydrogeological risk assessment under climate change conditions over urban settlements and infrastructure systems: the case of a sub-regional area of Piedmont, Italy

Hydrogeological impacts due to flood and landslides are among the most significant disasters in the world. In the last decades, these events result in forthcoming losses of life and damages to private and public properties and criticalities increase due to very often increasing losses as consequence of changes in the rainfall regimes as well as the increase in average temperatures. This paper describes an applied hydrogeological risk assessment methodology carried out as part of an interdisciplinary European project between France and Italy (Interreg Alcotra ARTACLIM). We developed a practical framework to assess the risk of urban settlements and infrastructural assets within a sub-regional area of Piedmont (north-west of Italy). Past and future climate drivers are here analyzed using high-resolution data to highlight the temporal and spatial distribution of elements under threat. Using geographic information systems, we elaborate climate and socioeconomic data to develop an effective procedure for a sub-regional integrated research on the intrinsic and external conditions of potential instability. The results of the analyses produce a geo-localized risk score that can be used to rank assets in a screening process that aims to assist urban planner and local policymaker to prioritize the adaptation measures required for taking action to reduce hydrogeological damages to their assets.