A new method for forecasting CO2 operation emissions along an infrastructure corridor

In evaluating the sustainability of a new transport infrastructure, an important aspect is the reduction of CO2 emissions that might be produced due to the modal shift. To that end, this article proposes a model based upon the simulation method (in order to determine the specific consumption of the vehicles) and the scenario method (for the prediction of the future demand of traffic). The model has been tested on the case study of the Brenner Corridor. The evaluation is on how the new HC railway line will affect freight transport in various future scenarios relating to 2030, taking into consideration the consequences in terms of traffic redistribution on existing transport infrastructures (the historical railway line and the highway). If compared to the work not being realized (the “minimum” scenario), the results reveal that CO2 emissions can increase of about 80 kt (the “trend” scenario), or decrease of approximately 230 kt (the “consensus” scenario) according to the political decisions that accompany the realization of the new line. In addition, the method makes it possible to determine the specific emissions that are necessary to transport one metric ton of freight along the entire corridor by the different transport modes. Finally, the transfer of freight from road to rail is quantified that is necessary to compensate the emissions originating from the construction of the work.