A Framework to Evaluate Land Take Control Policy Efficiency in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy

The development of effective policies against land take should be based on a deep knowledge of the specific land use dynamics and their determinants in a regional context. To this end, the traditional quantitative land use change analyses need to be integrated with a more accurate spatial and qualitative evaluation of the effects of the land use zoning of municipal land development plans and of the connected supplementary regulations (e.g., local building regulations). Land take limitation policies in Italy are largely based on the definition of quantitative thresholds for new development zones, while ignoring all those undeveloped zones that have been assigned building rights codes by plans of which the knowledge could largely impact policies. This paper attempted to define a conceptual framework of analysis which integrates a land use change assessment with an analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment of the spatial distribution of normative zones. The method was tested on the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (north-east Italy)—a territory that has experienced rapid growth in recent decades—by analyzing the spatial impact of the recently promulgated regional laws on land take control, the explicit and specific purpose of which was to limit commercial and industrial land use in the whole region. The soil sealing data were analyzed by performing a cross-comparison with the building rights permissions data, thus achieving a comprehensive evaluation of the past and predicted land take for commercial and industrial uses. Results demonstrated that the expected land take will exceed the past urbanization rate, highlighting a substantial inefficacy of the promulgated regional laws in promoting local land take control. The main innovations of this study relate to the definition of a newer qualitative methodology for framing an efficient decision-making supporting system, while helping to achieve the long-term sustainability of policies.