The widespread perception of an increase in the severity of extreme rainstorms has not found yet clear confirmation in the scientific literature, often showing vastly different results. Especially for short‐duration extremes, spatial heterogeneities can affect the outcomes of large‐scale trend analyses, providing misleading results dependent on the adopted spatial domain. Based on the availability of a renewed and comprehensive database, the present work assesses the presence of regional trends in the magnitude and frequency of annual rainfall maxima for sub‐daily durations in Italy. Versions of the Mann‐Kendall test and a record‐breaking analysis, that considers the spatial correlation, have been adopted for the scope. Significant trends do not appear at the whole‐country scale, but distinct patterns of change emerge in smaller domains having homogeneous geographical characteristics. Results of the study underline the importance of a multi‐scale approach to regional trend analysis and the need of more advanced explanations of localized trends.

Evidence for increasing rainfall extremes remains elusive at large spatial scales: the case of Italy / Libertino, A.; Ganora, D.; Claps, P.. - In: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS. - ISSN 0094-8276. - ELETTRONICO. - (2019). [10.1029/2019GL083371]

Evidence for increasing rainfall extremes remains elusive at large spatial scales: the case of Italy

Libertino, A.;Ganora, D.;Claps, P.
2019

Abstract

The widespread perception of an increase in the severity of extreme rainstorms has not found yet clear confirmation in the scientific literature, often showing vastly different results. Especially for short‐duration extremes, spatial heterogeneities can affect the outcomes of large‐scale trend analyses, providing misleading results dependent on the adopted spatial domain. Based on the availability of a renewed and comprehensive database, the present work assesses the presence of regional trends in the magnitude and frequency of annual rainfall maxima for sub‐daily durations in Italy. Versions of the Mann‐Kendall test and a record‐breaking analysis, that considers the spatial correlation, have been adopted for the scope. Significant trends do not appear at the whole‐country scale, but distinct patterns of change emerge in smaller domains having homogeneous geographical characteristics. Results of the study underline the importance of a multi‐scale approach to regional trend analysis and the need of more advanced explanations of localized trends.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Claps-Evidence for increasing.pdf

Open Access dal 18/12/2019

Tipologia: 2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record
Licenza: PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 1.51 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
1.51 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Claps-Evidence for increasing-accepted article.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: 2. Post-print / Author's Accepted Manuscript
Licenza: PUBBLICO - Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 5.95 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
5.95 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2740653
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo