Baltic Power Systems’ Integration into the EU Market Coupling under Different Desynchronization Schemes: A Comparative Market Analysis

Currently, the power transmission system of the Baltic states is synchronized with the Integrated/Unified Power System (IPS/UPS), which includes the Russian grid, and the IPS/UPS provides frequency regulation and system security within the Baltic states. Since joining the European Union (EU) in 2004, the Baltic states have been following the EU’s energy policy targets. The Baltics are presently participating in a European electricity market, i.e., the NordPool market, while they are expected to join the pan-European electricity market—the European target model for power market integration. Moreover, from a power grid perspective, EU energy policies intend to desynchronize the power grid of the Baltic states from the IPS/UPS over the coming years. This paper evaluates these policy trends through market impacts, and it complements existing studies on Baltic-IPS/UPS desynchronization in terms of wholesale electricity prices, generation surpluses, primary reserve adequacy, and redispatch costs. Participation of the Baltic states in the integrated pan-European day-ahead electricity market with zonal pricing was modeled for 2030, followed by a national redispatch, with detailed power grid modeling of Baltic states to solve potential intrazonal congestion. The simulation results imply the superiority of the Baltics’ synchronization to continental Europe, compared to the other schemes.