Framework for definition of design formulations from empirical and semi-empirical resistance models

The study proposes a framework based on the Monte Carlo method for the probabilistic calibration of empirical and semi-empirical resisting models. The resisting models adopted in engineering practice may be based both on physical laws, such as equilibrium of forces, and on semi-empirical or empirical formulations. Precisely, empirical or semi-empirical resisting models are calibrated in order to fit experimental data and the direct application of partial safety factors to material properties does not allow a proper estimation of the structural reliability. For this reason, a probabilistic definition of design expressions from empirical or semiempirical resisting models should be preferred to define a final formulation in agreement with a specific level of reliability. After a detailed description of the framework, its application to the probabilistic calibration of the semi-empirical model proposed by fib Model Code 2010 for the estimation of tensile strength of laps and anchorages in reinforced concrete structures is proposed.