The role of nearly-zero energy buildings in the transition towards Post-Carbon Cities

Nowadays about 50% of global population lives in cities, responsible for about 70% of GHG emissions and by 2030 the urbanization rate will increase to over 75%. The paper analyses the new emerging concept of “Post-Carbon City” (PCC) and its main influencing factors regarding the building sector. It provides inspiration to re-think urban re-development patterns leading the way for new comprehensive approaches. In this new vision, energy and cost-effective retrofit of existing buildings cover a key role both in terms of saving potential and emission reduction towards nearly-zero energy building (nZEB) target. Moreover, in the building operational phase occupant behaviour has a strong impact on the real energy performance and its effect should be minimized. Therefore, these two issues should be mainly taken into account when energy city planning. Several mid/long-term scenarios analyses performed through quantitative energy demand forecasting tools − concerning not only the building sector, but the whole energy system − are the only opportunity to produce indications for an energy-oriented city planning. Finally, it highlights the necessity of new Advanced Input Modelling procedures to improve the effectiveness of measure recommendations derived through scenarios analysis.