The Cagliari Airport impact on Sardinia tourism: a Logit-based analysis

In the field of air transportation management, traditionally, airlines have been the main actors in the process for deciding which new flights open in a given airport, while airports acted only as the managers of the operations. The changes in the market due to the introduction of low cost companies, with consequent reduction of the airports’ fares, as well as the increment of the density of regional airports in several European countries are modifying the mutual roles of airlines and airports. The final decision on new flight to be opened, in fact, is nowadays the result of a negotiation between airlines and airports. The airports must prove the sustainability on the new routes and forecast the economic impact on their catchment area. This paper contributes to advance the current state-of-the-art along two axes. From the pure transportation literature point of view, we introduce a Logit model able to predict the passengers flow in an airport when the management introduces a change in the flight schedule. The model is also able to predict the impact of this change on the airports in the surrounding areas. The second contribution is a case study on the tourist market of the Sardinia region, where we show how to use the results of the model to deduce the economic impact of the decisions of the management of the Cagliari airport on its catchment area in terms of tourists and economic growth.