Cogeneration Planning under Uncertainty. Part I: Multiple Time Frame Formulation

Cogeneration system planning spans a multi-year time interval and is affected by various sources of uncertainty, mainly depending on the evolution of energy loads and prices. The high level of uncertainty requires assessing the convenience of adopting predefined technological alternatives in different scenarios of variation of the uncertain variables. This paper introduces an original framework based on identifying the characteristics of small-scale and large-scale uncertainties, whereby a comprehensive approach based on multiple (long-, medium- and short-term) time frames is formulated. Medium-term time periods exhibiting small variations of both electrical and thermal load patterns are grouped together and represented through electrical/thermal load and electricity price correlated random variables (RVs). A Monte Carlo simulation of the cogeneration plant operation is carried out in the short-term by extracting the RVs for each group from multivariate Normal probability distributions. Multi-year scenarios in the long-term time frame are addressed in the companion paper (Part II). The proposed approach is applied to a real energy system.