An analysis of the soil moisture feedback on convective and stratiform precipitation

Land–atmosphere interactions in midlatitude continental regions are particularly active during the warm season. It is still unclear whether and under what circumstances these interactions may involve positive or negative feedbacks between soil moisture conditions and rainfall occurrence. Assessing such feedbacks is crucially important to a better understanding of the role of land surface conditions on the regional dynamics of the water cycle. This work investigates the relationship between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation at the daily time scale in a midlatitude continental region. Sounding data from 16 locations across the midwestern United States are used to calculate two indices of atmospheric instability—namely, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition (CIN). These indices are used to classify rainfall as convective or stratiform. Correlation analyses and uniformity tests are then carried out separately for these two rainfall categories, to assess the dependence of rainfall occurrence on antecedent soil moisture conditions, using simulated soil moisture values. The analysis suggests that most of the positive correlation observed between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation is due to the autocorrelation of long stratiform events. The authors found both areas with positive and areas with negative feedback on convective precipitation. This behavior is likely due to the contrasting effects of soil moisture conditions on convective phenomena through changes in surface temperature and the supply of water vapor to the overlying air column. No significant correlation is found between daily rainfall intensity and antecedent simulated soil moisture conditions either for convective or stratiform rainfall