Archivio Istituzionale della RicercaStudying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong in¯uence of possible nonstationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river ¯ow.
Influence of weak trends on exceedance probability / Porporato, Amilcare; Ridolfi, Luca. - In: STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS. - ISSN 0931-1955. - 12:(1997), pp. 1-14.
Influence of weak trends on exceedance probability
PORPORATO, Amilcare;RIDOLFI, LUCA
1997
Abstract
Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong in¯uence of possible nonstationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river ¯ow.
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https://hdl.handle.net/11583/1404488
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