This paper is concerned with the theoretical prediction of stress fractures in the bones of athletes, soldiers and others during periods of intensive exercise. Previously [J. Orthop. Res. 19 (2001) 919] we showed that test data on the fatigue strength of bone in vitro could be described using Weibull’s probabilistic model, allowing predictions to be made of the probability of failure as a function of time under cyclic loading. This paper extends the earlier argument by including two living processes which act to reduce the incidence of failure: (i) repair of damage, and; (ii) adaptation by bone deposition. Having incorporated these aspects into the mathematical model, we applied the theory to a specific case: the human second metatarsal. We predicted a 17% incidence of stress fractures, all occurring within 6 weeks of commencement of the training programme. These predictions agreed well with clinical findings. Interestingly, we concluded that the major effect in preventing stress fractures comes from repair rather than from adaptation, which has a relatively minor role because it acts more slowly.

Predicting stress fractures using a probabilistic model of damage, repair and adaptation / Taylor, D; Casolari, E; Bignardi, Cristina. - In: JOURNAL OF ORTHOPAEDIC RESEARCH. - ISSN 0736-0266. - 22:(2004), pp. 487-494.

Predicting stress fractures using a probabilistic model of damage, repair and adaptation

BIGNARDI, CRISTINA
2004

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the theoretical prediction of stress fractures in the bones of athletes, soldiers and others during periods of intensive exercise. Previously [J. Orthop. Res. 19 (2001) 919] we showed that test data on the fatigue strength of bone in vitro could be described using Weibull’s probabilistic model, allowing predictions to be made of the probability of failure as a function of time under cyclic loading. This paper extends the earlier argument by including two living processes which act to reduce the incidence of failure: (i) repair of damage, and; (ii) adaptation by bone deposition. Having incorporated these aspects into the mathematical model, we applied the theory to a specific case: the human second metatarsal. We predicted a 17% incidence of stress fractures, all occurring within 6 weeks of commencement of the training programme. These predictions agreed well with clinical findings. Interestingly, we concluded that the major effect in preventing stress fractures comes from repair rather than from adaptation, which has a relatively minor role because it acts more slowly.
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
JOR 2004 Taylor et al.pdf

non disponibili

Tipologia: 2. Post-print / Author's Accepted Manuscript
Licenza: Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto
Dimensione 363.37 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
363.37 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

Caricamento pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11583/1396918
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo