Energy transition and energy security: a twofold, multi-scalar challenge for the European territory

The steady rise in global energy demand and the close connection between fossil energy consumption and climate change have led to a growth in the scientific and political debates over how best to address future energy requirements and, in particular, how to effectively promote and accompany a transition towards a low-carbon society. At the same time, considering that European Union (EU) imports cover about half of its energy needs, energy security has become a policy priority for the EU and its Member States. As a matter of fact, energy issues have been at the heart of the European agenda since its inception, and the progressive consolidation of sustainability and security of supply as the main complementary pillars of the EU energy strategy have allowed for Europe's energy system to become incrementally lower-carbon, more competitive, and more secure. The recent United Nations Conference of the Parties (UN-COP21), held in Paris in December 2015, defined a shared target for climate change mitigation. This target limits temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, this implying that the transition to a low carbon economy will be the driver for our future energy security framework. However, while the EU has been successful in institutionalising a climate policy, the formulation of a fully effective energy security policy remains a more complex issue. This is mostly due to the differences that characterize the various national agendas. Whereas there is a clear, urgent need to agree upon shared objectives at the EU level, as well as to persuade the EU Member States to ‘speak with one voice’, this need is not always translated into practical results and current European energy policy continues to be strongly influenced by the heterogeneity of national approaches, portraying it as one of the least successful areas of integration, despite its importance for the everyday life of EU population and in moving towards a shared sustainable future. The scarce attention for potential synergies and trade-offs between climate change and energy security is acknowledged by the European Commission through the recent EU Green Paper on a 2030 framework for EU climate change and energy policies, which states that "the 2030 framework must identify how best to maximise synergies and deal with trade-offs between the objectives of competitiveness, security of energy supply and sustainability" (COM(2013) 169). In this light, European policy-makers are constantly challenged with the need to achieve energy security while promoting a transition that radically decarbonises energy use without undermining the well-being of its citizens. The chapter aims at shedding some light on the matter by presenting the main findings of the research project MILESECURE-2050 . It synthesizes the results from the studies and analyses of empirical evidence from anticipatory experiences and focus groups and of the socio-economic simulations and modelling exercises developed throughout the project to then propose a set of guidelines and recommendations for the development of future policies at the different territorial levels. Overall, the analysis points out that policies must be flexible and aimed at learning and adaptation, so as to accommodate the considerable differences that exist between countries and regions in terms of technological and socio-economic development as well as cultural perspectives.