Cost-Risk Analysis for supporting urban regeneration projects

The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision making processes in urban regeneration projects. Focus is posed on economic–environmental sustainability evaluation of building retrofit projects, at district scale, in presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of a conjoint Probability Analysis with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological alternative scenarios with different energy production systems. The model input (cost drivers) and model output (Global Cost) are expressed in stochastic terms. A complex project is proposed as a case-study: a social-housing district in a town in Northern Italy.