A Methodology for the Vulnerability Analysis of the Climate Change in the Oromia Region, Ethiopia

Goal of the vulnerability research of the last years is to evaluate which community, region, or nation is more vulnerable in terms of its sensitive to damaging effects of extreme meteorological events like floods or droughts. Ethiopia is a country where it is possible to find the described conditions. Aim of this work was to develop an integrated system of early warning and response, whereas neither landmark data nor vulnerability drought analysis existed in the country. Specifically, a vulnerability index and a capacity to react index of the population of three Woredas in the Oromia Region of Ethiopia were determined and analysed. Input data concerned rainfall, water availability, physical land characteristics, agricultural and livestock dimensions, as well as population and socio-economic indices. Data were collected during a specific NGO project and thanks to a field research funded by the University of Torino. Results were analysed and specific maps were drawn. The mapping of the vulnerability indices revealed that the more isolated Woreda with less communication roads and with less water sources presented the worst data almost on all its territory. Despite not bad vulnerability indices in the other two Woredas, however, population here still encountered difficulty to adapt to sudden climatic changes, as revealed by the other index of capacity to reaction. Beyond the interpretation of each parameter, a more complete reading key was possible using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) beside these indicators. In a normalized scale between 0 and 1, in this study the calculated annual SPI index was 0.83: the area is therefore considerably exposed to the drought risk, caused by an high intensity and frequency of rainfall lack.