Hydraulic infrastructures are commonly designed with reference to target values of flood peak, estimated using probabilistic techniques, such as flood frequency analysis. The application of these techniques underlies levels of uncertainty, which are sometimes quantified but normally not accounted for explicitly in the decision regarding design discharges. The present work aims at defining a procedure which enables the definition of UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign estimator of flood peaks. To pursue this goal, a model is proposed in which the standard probabilistic methods for Flood Frequency Analysis are casted in the Cost-Benefit analysis decision framework using the confidence probability as a weighted factor. The model is based on linear cost and damage functions, though possible application of other functions is explored. Remarkable displacement of the design flood from the standard values are reported. UNCODE estimates are systematically larger than the Standard ones, with substantial differences (up to 55%) when large return periods or short data samples are considered. Given these preliminary results, simple user-friendly formulas to be used in practice are calibrated. The formulas directly provide a correction of the standard design discharge to be applied both for regional analysis where the confidence bands of the design discharge can be exploited, or for the at-site analysis, where a discharge peaks series is available and the sample length is applied as a proxy of the confidence bands width.

"Uncertainty Compliant Design of flood-defense infrastructures: a cost-benefit approach" / Botto, Anna. - (2015).

"Uncertainty Compliant Design of flood-defense infrastructures: a cost-benefit approach"

BOTTO, ANNA
2015

Abstract

Hydraulic infrastructures are commonly designed with reference to target values of flood peak, estimated using probabilistic techniques, such as flood frequency analysis. The application of these techniques underlies levels of uncertainty, which are sometimes quantified but normally not accounted for explicitly in the decision regarding design discharges. The present work aims at defining a procedure which enables the definition of UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign estimator of flood peaks. To pursue this goal, a model is proposed in which the standard probabilistic methods for Flood Frequency Analysis are casted in the Cost-Benefit analysis decision framework using the confidence probability as a weighted factor. The model is based on linear cost and damage functions, though possible application of other functions is explored. Remarkable displacement of the design flood from the standard values are reported. UNCODE estimates are systematically larger than the Standard ones, with substantial differences (up to 55%) when large return periods or short data samples are considered. Given these preliminary results, simple user-friendly formulas to be used in practice are calibrated. The formulas directly provide a correction of the standard design discharge to be applied both for regional analysis where the confidence bands of the design discharge can be exploited, or for the at-site analysis, where a discharge peaks series is available and the sample length is applied as a proxy of the confidence bands width.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2603985
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