Effects of Climate Change on the Vulnerability of Farmers in Nepal

Climate change impacts vary in degree according to sector and region. The effects of climate change are particularly adverse for sectors like agriculture and water management, which are dependent on climatic variables. Subsistence farmers in developing countries like Nepal, where agriculture is mainly rain-fed rural people mainly depend on natural based livelihood activities and rely on agriculture, forestry and natural bases and have very little resources, have weak adaptive capacity, and may be unable to cope with changing climatic conditions. These factors augment farmers’ vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on three different Village Development Committees from three different geographical regions – Pragatinagar of Nawalparasi from low land, Thumpokhara of Syangja from mid-land and Kagbeni of Mustang district from high land district, this study aims to explore the impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of farmers. Hence the objective of the study is to investigate the climate change vulnerability, existing livelihood adaptation practices and perception of local people about climate change, adaptive capacity and adaptation techniques in local level. Local level vulnerability assessment is very important to formulate suitable policy measures to address their livelihood. Household level vulnerability to climate change depends on different factors, so there is still uncertainty in methodology to measure vulnerability. However, this research has adopted the integrated vulnerability assessment concept and indicator method to study farmers’ vulnerability of the study areas utilizing the data collected from 219 households and secondary data. CARE’s Community- Based Adaptation Toolkit method and insight from quantitative and qualitative research methodology, household and key informant interviews, and observation and PRA techniques for data collection were also done. Different socioeconomic and biophysical factors were collected and classified into three classes (Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to prioritize the indicators. The study found that climate of Pragatinagar, Thumpokhara and Kagbeni have changed in terms of high temperature warning and decreased rainfall days significantly. Though rainfall does not show significant changes in last three decades, the gap between rainfall days increased enormously caused drought in the study sites. Cloudburst caused flood and landslides in all study areas as flood, landslide, soil erosion, drought and invasion of new insects and diseases are the main climatic disasters occur in those regions and they are considered as sensitivity indicators for the study. Hundreds of people have displaced, many people lost their life, infrastructures, land and livestock have also affected due to frequently occurring mainly flood and landslides these two are the main climatic disasters in all there study regions. Exposure to these natural disasters and climate variability and present vulnerable strategies, contributed highly to the vulnerability of households farmers in all VDCs. Though, contribution of socio-cultural construct and indigenous adaptation attributed to reduce the overall vulnerability of both the villages to some extent. Five livelihood assets – human, physical, social, natural and financial and their indicators were considered to measure adaptive capacity of community. Human and social assets are important determinants in Pragatinagar and Thumpokhara followed by social asset in Pragatinagar and Natural asset in Thumpokhara. However, Natural assets, physical and human assets are the main important indicators in Kagbeni. Though 22 indicators were selected for the study, all indicators do not have equal role to measure adaptive capacity of the household. So, PCA technique was used to prioritize the indicators. Vocational training, irrigation, diversified income, education and knowledge about climate change and its consequences are the foremost indicators that is need to improve adaptive capacity of Pragatinagar. Similarly, Reliable drinking water resource, knowledge about climate change, education, irrigation and diversified income source are the indicators for Thumpokhara and Access to road, market and health centers, education and device to access information are the key indicators that need to be focus to develop adaptive capacity of local farmers in Kagbeni. As ward is considered as the unit of analysis for vulnerability, results show that wards having high exposure and sensitivity and low adaptive capacity are more vulnerable to climate change. Household analysis of vulnerability indicated that poor households are vulnerable anywhere, regardless of where they are located due to low adaptive capacity. Policy measures should focus on improving the adaptive capacity of rural households. This study shows that though farmers do not have scientific knowledge about climate change and its impacts on different sectors, people have a wide range of perceptions and levels of awareness and knowledge on climate change which is based on their historical relationships with the environment, experimental knowledge tied closely to livelihood practices like agriculture and pasturing, and holistic understanding. People have undertaken many indigenous adaptation skills and livelihood diversification to cope and adapt with the vulnerabilities and effects of climate change. Adjustment in varieties, shifting in sowing dates, soil conservation practices, social networks for economic recovery, temporary labor migration, rain water harvesting and diversified income sources are existing adaptation practices in Pragatinagar and Thumpokhara. Social safety nets, indigenous institution Mukhiya System, indigenous financial institution Dhikuti System and indigenous seasonal migration are the major coping/adaptation means for the people Kagbeni. Climate change implications are always not negative. As climate changes, it may hold opportunities for the semi- arid region like Kagbeni. Findings of the study demonstrate some positive aspects of climate change in the area. Taking opportunities of climate change by planting new varieties of high value crops for instance, maize, vegetables and apples are some of the good sign of climate change in Kagbeni. Keyword: Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, Adaptation Practices, Assets