NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL APPROACH TO CORRECT SATELLITE RAINFALL DATA IN NEAR-REAL-TIME FOR RAIN BASED FLOOD NOWCASTING

Floods resulting from intense rainfall are one of the most disastrous hazards in many regions of the world since they contribute greatly to personal injury and to property damage mainly as a result of their ability to strike with little warning. The possibility to give an alert about a flooding situation at least a few hours before helps greatly to reduce the damage. Therefore, scores of flood forecasting systems have been developed during the past few years mainly at country level and regional level. Flood forecasting systems based only on traditional methods such as return period of flooding situations or extreme rainfall events have failed on most occasions to forecast flooding situations accurately because of changes on territory in recent years by extensive infrastructure development, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events over recent decades, etc. Nowadays, flood nowcasting systems or early warning systems which run on real- time precipitation data are becoming more popular as they give reliable forecasts compared to traditional flood forecasting systems. However, these kinds of systems are often limited to developed countries as they need well distributed gauging station networks or sophisticated surface-based radar systems to collect real-time precipitation data. In most of the developing countries and in some developed countries also, precipitation data from available sparse gauging stations are inadequate for developing representative aerial samples needed by such systems. As satellites are able to provide a global coverage with a continuous temporal availability, currently the possibility of using satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood nowcasting systems is being highly investigated. To contribute to the world’s requirement for flood early warning systems, ITHACA developed a global scale flood nowcasting system that runs on near-real-time satellite rainfall estimates. The system was developed in cooperation with United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), to support the preparedness phase of the WFP like humanitarian assistance agencies, mainly in less developed countries. The concept behind this early warning system is identifying critical rainfall events for each hydrological basin on the earth with past rainfall data and using them to identify floodable rainfall events with real time rainfall data. The individuation of critical rainfall events was done with a hydrological analysis using 3B42 rainfall data which is the most accurate product of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) dataset. These critical events have been stored in a database and when a rainfall event is found in real-time which is similar or exceeds the event in the database an alert is issued for the basin area. The most accurate product of TMPA (3B42) is derived by applying bias adjustments to real time rainfall estimates using rain gauge data, thus it is available for end-users 10-15 days after each calendar month. The real time product of TMPA (3B42RT) is released approximately 9 hours after real-time and lacks of such kind of bias adjustments using rain gauge data as rain gauge data are not available in real time. Therefore, to have reliable alerts it is very important to reduce the uncertainty of 3B42RT product before using it in the early warning system. For this purpose, a statistical approach was proposed to make near real- time bias adjustments for the near real time product of TMPA (3B42RT). In this approach the relationship between the bias adjusted rainfall data product (3B42) and the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT) was analyzed on the basis of drainage basins for the period from January 2003 to December 2007, and correction factors were developed for each basin worldwide to perform near real-time bias adjusted product estimation from the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT). The accuracy of the product was analyzed by comparing with gauge rainfall data from Bangladesh and it was found that the uncertainty of the product is less even than the most accurate product of TMPA dataset (3B42).