Speed of Diffusion, Rethinking Time and Firms' strategy: Analysis of the interactions to leap across the chasm

Although the literature has recognised short time to market and early entry as relevant factors, they are not enough alone to ensure success. In fact, an early entrant may successfully serve early adopters, but then fail in developing products suitable for those who adopt later (i.e., the early majority), dissipating the first-mover advantages previously gained. This paper argues that the likelihood of being successful in the early majority segment depends also on the rethinking time, defined as the time available to firms serving early adopters for planning and developing products that will be offered to the upcoming early majority segment. The rethinking time is here analytically defined through the Bass model and its relationship with product success is investigated. The paper shows that the market leader in the early majority segment is expected to be the incumbent when rapid diffusion occurs and, conversely, new entrants when rethinking time is longer.