Monte Carlo approach to model the progressive failure of water distribution networks: application to a virtual city

The effects of the rapid urbanization and new hazards related to climate change are becoming extremely complex and unpredictable. Communities are thus seeking to improve their recovery capacity after catastrophic events through management and adaptation strategies. Generally, existing infrastructures have been built before the preparation of the seismic design guidelines, yielding to possible insufficient responses when subjected to earthquakes. Furthermore, interdependencies between different critical infrastructures is also becoming of paramount importance for improving community resilience. This paper focuses on the water distribution network as one of the most essential lifelines. The water distribution network is modeled using a specific software integrated by a mathematical toolbox. An earthquake scenario is applied to the water network and the related damages are determined by using fragility functions. The failure of the system occurs when the water flow and the water pressure go below a certain threshold. The resilience of the network is then evaluated using two indices: (i) the number of users without water and (ii) the drop in the total water supply.