Prognostic factors and risk groups in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients initially treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: results of a retrospective multicenter study of 2451 patients.

BACKGROUND: The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. OBJECTIVE: To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age ≥ 70 yr, size ≥ 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients ≥ 70 yr with tumor size ≥ 3 cm and 13% otherwise. CONCLUSIONS: T1G3 patients ≥ 70 yr with tumors ≥ 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression.